A response to The Economist’s view on the
impacts of rural electrification
By
Ramanshu Ganguly and Swapnil
Shekhar
The global dialogue on electricity access
identifies it as a critical driver for improving lives, especially for the poor
in the developing nations.[1]
As this World Economic Forum article
points out, electricity is an essential ingredient for ensuring a better life;
critical in enabling access to cleaner and purified water; enhancing access to
better medical care; ensuring study hours for children; improving connectivity
through charging mobile phones, among others.[2]
An article published by The Economist on
7th February, however, differs from this standpoint. The article, drawing
reference from a couple of research studies based in Africa, highlights the
inability of rural electrification to create developmental outcomes such as
poverty alleviation.
Indeed, electrification, on its own,
cannot alleviate poverty. This holds for a range of public services such as
clean water, better roads, internet connectivity, financial inclusion services,
waste management and so on that governments often provide. The outcomes of such
public goods are inherently difficult to measure precisely. Both because of the
long time-span required for their effects to become visible and the diffused
nature of their benefits. This is primarily why they are called public goods
and why we expect governments to provide them. Because governments can afford
the risk of investing in a good which might not deliver outcomes for an
extended period and for which it is difficult to pinpoint who benefitted and how
much exactly.
Further, public policy decisions are not based on a singular metric of poverty
alleviation.
Equity or the idea that all citizens
must have equal access to services and equal opportunities to utilize them for
development is also an important goal. So is an improved quality of life. These
goals might be achieved without concurrent improvements in income but viewing
interventions in developing country contexts purely from the perspective of
immediate poverty alleviation outcomes is a limited view on public policy.
What
electricity access can do in the short term is to trigger a change towards a
low poverty situation, improve the quality of lives and reduce distributional
inequities. And,
we have seen electricity access triggering such changes in rural communities in
India.
Since 2015, Sambodhi has independently
assessed social, economic and environmental benefits of electricity from
decentralized renewable mini-grids, under various initiatives, especially the
Smart Power Initiative.[3] These initiatives are
owned and operated by nine energy service companies (ESCOs) across 120 plus
villages in three most power-starved states in India.
Concurrent measurement of the Smart
Power Initiative’s impact over the last eight years showcases how electricity
access has been able to positively impact the lives of the rural poor at the
levels of households, businesses, and overall village level economy. The six-monthly concurrent impact measurement
studies that are carried out across 2000
households and 600 local businesses have provided robust evidence on how
electricity access has transformed the quality of rural lives.
Electrical appliances are one of the
critical enablers of improved life quality. Fans, in a tropical country such as
India, and televisions are indicators of an enhanced standard of living. The
impact measurement rounds highlight that nearly 14 percent of households have been reported to have purchased fans, a necessary device to
keep the scorching summer heat at bay. There has also been a 12 percent point increase in the number of households buying televisions.
Televisions act as both entertainment and knowledge source for rural
communities. With access issues of print media, televisions ensure that global
information is brought to the rural doorsteps.
Kerosene
consumption,
across electricity users, have also reduced
by 58 percentage points. A direct impact of this reduction is reflected
with nearly 70 percent of mini-grid electrified households, citing marked
reduction in ailments and injuries due to the use of kerosene lamps.
We need to acknowledge the role of
electricity in making our day-to-day life convenient. In the context of the
Smart Power initiative, women report that reliable electricity has made
domestic chores easier to perform. Women
report having carved out an additional half to an hour of spare time which they
prefer to spend on personal engagements such as stitching, knitting or even
watching television.
Local business units powered by reliable electricity supply also play a role in making lives easier for rural women. Key among them being grain processing units and water purification units. Traditionally in India, grain processing and collection of water are arduous engagements for women. With mechanized grain processing units making their entry into the hinterland of the country, there has been a significant reduction in the drudgery undergone by women in getting paddy hulled hitherto. Similarly, water purification units ensure local availability of clean water, reducing the efforts, otherwise made by women to collect and purify. The enhanced access to mechanized services helps us appreciate the ability of electricity to improve rural quality of lives.
While electricity access has longer
poverty impact trajectories, our data prove that it positively impacts local
economic development in shorter runs-acting as an enabler to growth.
Evidence from
SPRD points out expansion, diversification, and development of local businesses
because of electricity access.
The impact measurement mandate of SPRD
focuses strongly on understanding causality and estimating impact on village
economy. The measurement is driven by two components a) Aggregating change in village-level
economic productivity through repeated cross-sectional surveys of local
businesses. b) Using difference-in-difference (DID) to
estimate the impact and appreciate its trajectory for a panel of 600 local
businesses representing the village level business ecosystem.
The aggregated measure of village-level
economic impact suggests an increase in overall economic output due to improved
electricity. The per capita annual economic outputs have increased from USD 414 to USD 439 (USD 3 of which can be
attributed to mini-grid programmes).
Our panel of local businesses helps us
deconstruct the aggregated economic growth story.
The DID estimates at the level of local
businesses suggest increased daily operational hours (an additional hour and a
half) for businesses with reliable electricity connection. Moreover, local
businesses supplied with electricity from mini-grids experience an additional seven percent customer footfall. Electricity access has also led to the
mechanization of business operations. From 2015 to 2018, we have seen tailoring
and carpentry units, the most commonly seen enterprises in rural India,
switching to electricity run machines over manual ones. Thus, enhancing the efficiency
of the businesses by a large margin. Many tailors, connected to the SPRD
mini-grids, have highlighted a monthly increase in revenues of 35 percent or USD 30 (from USD 85 to USD
115). Carpenters have emphasized that their efficiency has tripled after the
introduction of electricity run machines.
Local businesses have enjoyed an
increase of around 42 percent in their
monthly revenue from USD 137 to USD 195, over three years. About 64 percent
of these businesses have been able to derive financial benefits just through
improved and regular lighting. It is, however, seen that local businesses,
which use electricity to run machines or for productive use, have experienced
greater economic gains (52% increase
from USD 145 to USD 220 per month) as compared to businesses that use light
as the only point of electricity usage (36%
increase from USD 132 to USD 180 per month).
We do acknowledge the article’s stand on
lack of evidence on electricity access leading to significant economic
transformations in the rural context. This is largely explained by the
short-term nature of programmes for creating access, the small quantum of
electricity provided in most programmes, and the fact that in many regions the
target population uses multiple sources of electricity. We believe that with a
shift towards evaluating impacts and standardization of outcome variables,
future evidence on electricity and development will be more robust. However,
our experience in this domain leads us to believe that poverty alleviation will
require a larger and inter-generational time-frame. In the meanwhile, electricity access paves a pathway towards that change
through smaller and more frequent direct impacts, and these are extremely
valuable by themselves.
Ramanshu Ganguly is an Assistant Vice
President-Research at Sambodhi.
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